Poland Caught Off Guard

Exceedingly hesitant to provoke Russia, Poland has steadfastly endured increasing pressure from Washington over the past year. Wedged between repeating conquerors Germany and Russia; reeling from its on-again, off-again relationship with the rest of Europe; in limbo following the Irish no-vote on the EU Lisbon Treaty; and uneasy with the arching ambitions of its esteemed protector America; Poland is searching for ways to rise above its geopolitical trap.

The Russia-Georgia conflict earlier this month irrevocably altered the paradigm framing Poland’s foreign policy assumptions. What Russia perceived as necessary humanitarian intervention was also a demonstration of its renewed military and political might. Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvilli quickly found himself overwhelmed by Moscow’s response, and sounded the alarm to the rest of Eastern Europe that those nations “would be next.”

Inserting that fear into the mind of the repeatedly victimized nation just weeks after the anniversary of the heroic Warsaw Uprising was enough. Poles now wonder, perhaps we are not as safe as we imagined. Within two weeks, the government jumped off the fence and past the point of no return, signing the agreement with the US.

America is seen as the only nation that has never let Poland down in its time of need. In this new chapter, Warsaw is enthusiastically repaying the debt by allowing Washington to post its sentries at the country’s gates.

Polish Victimization

Sitting on a vast plain with few natural boundaries to deter would-be conquerors, Poland lays exposed in the heart of Europe. Apart from its golden heyday from the 14th to 16th Centuries, Poland has found itself repeatedly annexed and subdivided by surrounding powers for most of its over 1,000 year history. This has led to a vigilant preoccupation with security, buffeted by strong cultural ties with its far-abroad.

Beginning with the 966 AD conversion to Catholicism, Poland set a pattern of seeking legitimacy and security through membership in the international community. Paradoxically, this move opened the nascent state to the wider world while increasing its regional isolation. Poles strongly identified with emerging French, British and American philosophies and considered themselves to be partners in those grand destinies. Poland enthusiastically set up one of the first parliamentary systems in largely autocratic Europe, and even ratified the world’s second modern constitution. Sadly, its visionary political system and colorful artistic culture failed the critical task of unifying the country during successive waves of invasion; fatefully, the growing discord opened the doors to defeat. By the time World War I exploded on Europe’s door in 1914, Poland had disappeared altogether from the map.

Carved up by the “Partitions” between Russia, Austria and Prussia at the end of the 18th Century, Poland had already endured the Mongol invasions in the 13th Century; protracted battles with the Teutonic Knights from the 13th to the 15th Centuries; Tatar invasions during the 16th Century; the Swedish “Deluge” of the 17th Century; and chronic unrest until the 18th Century. Aside from a brief interlude of independence brought on by Napoleon’s invasion of Russia in the early 19th Century, followed by a short-lived Second Republic during the interwar years, Poland would not take another breath as a completely independent nation until after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Even before the Russian tanks completed their withdrawal, Polish leaders began working towards joining both NATO and what is now the European Union. Believing that membership in these supranational organizations offered the surest path to security, Warsaw had very little to offer in return except its geography.

As far as NATO is concerned, having Poland on its side is valuable primarily because it is a loss for Russia, NATO’s arch-enemy. Poland’s greatest asset is its historical antagonism with its neighbors, a card which can be played against Moscow with the forthcoming military installations. The greatest and saddest irony is perhaps the fact that, by seeking a way out of its geopolitical reality, Poland has in fact solidified it.

Moscow’s Perspective

For its part, Moscow is incensed by what it perceives as overt American-led aggression into its established sphere of influence. It deeply resents being told what to do in its own backyard by a distant power, especially since it sees itself as the historical vanguard of the smaller Slavic nations. The dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union nearly two decades ago was terribly humiliating, interpreted by many Russians as the discarding of their rightful destiny by a blundering politician. Watching Poland join its rival painfully rubbed salt in the wound; Moscow did its best to foil Warsaw by attempting to demand certain conditions for Poland’s membership from NATO.

Ultimately, Russia could not prevent the changing tide, but felt confident in the balance of power achieved by weapons agreements with Washington. Beginning with the 2001 American withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, Russia has felt the repeated stab of betrayal, especially since the interceptors to be installed on Polish soil are the very weapons banned by the discarded agreement.

The US has assured Russia that such a small installation in its periphery cannot possibly threaten its military might, causes Russia to question the ability of the grid to defend against terrorism at all. Moscow argues that not only is a military threat from Iran an imaginary one, but that Poland is hardly positioned in an ideal location to combat such an attack. Russians view the installation as being every bit as provocative and belligerent as Americans viewed the Soviet missiles installed in Cuba during the 1960s.

Reading between the lines, Moscow has received a strong message of domination and antagonism from Washington. Criticized in the past for being paranoid about the security of its near-abroad, its enemies have proven it right. The gauntlet has been cast down; in an era of increased wealth and nationalism, Russia is likely to rise to the challenge.

Polish Opposition Mounts

Agata, a sociology doctoral student in Krakow, says polls show an increasing opposition to the missile shield, largely in fear of retaliation.

“Two years ago, the number opposed was around 32%; now it is 54%. 59% think that shield may increase the risk of Russian attack and 56% have the same opinion about the possible attack of Islamic terrorists.”

Politics in Poland have for many years been polarized between the rural, elderly and more traditional countryside and the cosmopolitan, youthful, and more educated urban areas. This issue is no exception.

“The supporters are better educated, live mostly in towns and are interested in politics. Surprisingly, many students and young people support the idea of setting anti-mission shield in Poland.”

Agata adds that she is in the minority among her demographic. “I don't support the idea of Poland as a satellite of any empire, no matter if it’s the Soviet Union or the US. I just don't believe in fairy tale about the fight between empire of good and empire of evil.”




About the Author
Melissa Hahn is a freelance writer and world traveler whose projects include foreign affairs analysis, children's literature, and creative nonfiction. Born and raised in Phoenix, Arizona, she completed her B.A. in Russian Area Studies at St. Olaf College in Minnesota, and is currently a graduate student at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland. She is an associate analyst at The Power and Interest Report and currently writes for the English-language edition of the Pan-Korean Peacemaking Webzine.

A photojournalist and amateur artist, Melissa aims to bring small joys to people's lives and to enable Americans to release their fear of the rest of the world. Through her works, she hopes to inspire her readers to seize the day and experience the wonder of humanity that exists both around the globe and in their own backyards.