The California prison overcrowding problem is based more on union politics rather than fact and analysis. The prison bed shortage, based on the independent Legislative Analysist (LAO) prison bed figures, is only about 3,500 beds. The LAO reported that AB 900 would result in a 32,000 prison bed surplus by 2012. The actual correctional system shortage is the 66,500 county jail bed shortage reported by the California Sheriffs Association, not in the prison system.
The county jail bed shortage caused the gradual transfer of about half of the usual jail population, including technical parole violators, to the prison system, the reason for the minor prison overcrowding. Prior to the jail bed shortage, about half of the inmate population was in county jail and half in prison. The 242,000 inmate population is now distributed 34% in county jail and 66% in prison. The requirement for transfer to prison for violation disposition is the reason California has such high violation rate. This artificially high rate adds about $350 million annually to prison operating costs.